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Gillard will be gone by Spring.

July 24, 2012

The latest Newspoll shows support for the Gillard Government has collapsed to just 28 per cent.

The last time Labor sank to a sub-30 per cent primary vote was in a poll conducted from April 27-29, while it reached its record low of 26 per cent in September last year.

It’s the worst Newspoll result for Labor in three months and comes in the wake of the Government’s cash handouts to “working families” by way of compensation for the carbon tax.

It’s clear however, that the Gillard government has entered that terminal phase where no amount of glib slogans or mealy-mouthed condescending sound grabs like “I’ve given you the answer I’m going to give you,” or ”I don’t think this is a chemical formula about one molecule plus another molecule gives you an answer” have taken their toll.

The public has simply stopped listening.  And who can blame them.  The Prime Minister has proven herself to be a leader who can’t be trusted. And trust is a key ingredient in winning an election.

Julia Gillard once declared that a “dark cloud” had descended over Parliament as she simultaneously dispensed with Craig Thomson as the HSU scandal threatened to engulf the Labor party and Julia Gillard’s professional judgement.

The dark cloud appears to be Julia Gillard’s leadership which by all accounts is now untenable.

A sub-30 point primary party rating is generally regarded as terminal for any leader, and given that Ms Gillard failed to secure any post-budget bounce, or post cash handout bounce in the polls, there must now be a prevailing sense of impending doom that nothing can save Labor now, other than a change in leader.

It’s inevitable now, and only a matter of time.

 

 

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32 Comments leave one →
  1. Splatterbottom permalink
    July 24, 2012 12:24 pm

    Crean as leader makes sense. He gets to be PM for a little while, long term ambition is not an issue at his age, and maybe he will be a slightly more sane leader than Gillard. I’m not sure how much “furniture” he will save, though. Most of that has a bad case of dry rot. They know they have propped up a shonky fool for far too long and along the way made far too many glib statements of undying support for a rotten government and its rotten leader.

    Most voters are just sharpening their knives, waiting for election day to show Labor exactly what they think. They have been taken for mugs by a bunch of crooked political opportunists. They have watched this abomination of a government, elected on a lie and propped up by a Unionland grub and watched dumbfounded as the PM glibly expressed her confidence in him. They have seen the consequences of the hubris of dumb leftists who thought it was a good idea to fix a system that wasn’t broken and killed a thousand odd people in the process. They have seen Australia’s live cattle industry nobbled for no good reason and watched celebrity arsonist Peter Garrett burn more than just a few beds. And they have waited patiently for their turn to talk. When the time comes the carnage will be awesome.

    And Shorten shouldn’t be counting his chickens – once the Royal Commission into Unionland fraud gets under way the whole AWU cabal is going to look very grubby indeed.

  2. TB Queensland permalink
    July 24, 2012 12:47 pm

    … and killed a thousand odd people in the process

    WTF! Does that mean … asylum seekers drowned at sea I s’pose … part of the Gospel According to LibNats … why are rightwhingers here obsessed with death and dying?

    How many died when John Howard & The Private School Bullies went to war …

    I don’t like the present government either …

    …. BUT I don’t live in glorified expectation of a LibNat Revival Meeting of Onward Christian Soldiers and Marching Into Hell, the banner held high by Bishop Pell … with Father Clivey, Saint Twiggy & Sister Ginny running the show … the Murdoch Choir providing background … and Tony Abbott being praised while he chants … No! No! No! No!

    Talk about living in fkn Purgatory … no heaven ‘n’ hell here …

  3. July 24, 2012 1:09 pm

    Spring has sprung,
    the grass has riz,
    just more rumours to make a fizz?

    Crean, you must be joking!
    Shorten? Yeh if you want to shorten the number of Labor seats in parliament even further than Julia might take it. This guy has so much union AWU thuggery on his hands, he even frightens Bill Ludwid!
    Rudd? Nope — sit it out and be in there to pick up the pieces. He’d have to be a fool to even want to touch it with a 50 foot (er metre) barge pole.
    Julia? On the balance of probabilities she’ll be the one carrying the flag when the ship goes down!

    The tragedy is that well be back on the ultra conservative track to the further Americanisation of Australia for at least three terms of the NO Coalition and Phoney Tony. Watch the economy herniate in 2013 under a conservative government without any plan whatsoever.

  4. Tom of Melbourne permalink
    July 24, 2012 1:11 pm

    Crean is decent, or I though he was until he attacked Rudd so viciously, but what would he do?

    He couldn’t commit to serving out the next term, he’s already failed- 10 years ago. It’s not as if he’s fresh of face or policy.

    I think Rudd could put the government within striking distance of a win. A change in September and an election in December, just as the bounce is at its peak.

  5. Splatterbottom permalink
    July 24, 2012 1:24 pm

    “I don’t like the present government either …”

    The difference between us then must be that you are living in the past. Apparently any criticism of the current mob must be tempered with another shot at Howard. But why?

    I was as tough as anyone on Howard at the time and said so very loudly, but guess what? That isn’t relevant now.

    “…. BUT I don’t live in glorified expectation of a LibNat Revival Meeting of Onward Christian Soldiers and Marching Into Hell, the banner held high by Bishop Pell … with Father Clivey, Saint Twiggy & Sister Ginny running the show … the Murdoch Choir providing background … and Tony Abbott being praised while he chants … No! No! No! No!”

    Yes! Yes! Yes! your pathetic and irrelevant attempts to distract from the short-comings of this rotten government are noted. We are all aware of the brittleness of the opposition. No one expects salvation from Abbott and Hockey. And when the time comes I will no doubt be ranting on about their short-comings as well. But right now, this rancid cancer of a government needs to be removed. It is utterly rotten to the core. It is so rotten that people are prepared to vote for an Abbott-led Coalition by a large margin. It is so rotten that the rusted-ons have given up supporting it and can only bring themselves to run tactical interference by reminding us how bad Howard was.

  6. JAWS permalink
    July 24, 2012 1:27 pm

    “Saint Twiggy” ?

    That’s rather amusing considering I would venture that Fortescue Metals Group is not exactly built on a foundation of concrete by shipping inferior product at very high cost.

    I don’t think Saint Twiggy has much to fear about paying the MRRT. At the rate he’s going at the moment he’d be happy to be in that space at all in a couple of years.

  7. July 24, 2012 1:42 pm

    I’m so sick and tired of listening to this tired old sorry BS…

    ”Government is about governing, it’s about getting the big things done, the hard things done that set our nation up for the future that make sure were stronger and fairer in that future,” she said.

    ”If we look at our Labor history it teaches us that the big reforms don’t come easy – floating the dollar, creating Medicare, universal superannuation, Mabo.”

    ”If you want to make those big reforms you’ve got to stick to your guns – stick to your guns on those big reforms and you can’t afford to be obsessed by the opinion polls.”

    ”There will be the poll that matters, the election day in 2013 and on that election day Australians will have a choice between a negative destructive Liberal Party with absolutely no plans for the future or Labor that has got some big hard things done that set us up for the future and has got a plan to make sure our nation keeps getting stronger, keeps getting fairer and keeps being a winner in the world in which we live today.”

    ra-ra “obbordunidy”

    ra-ra “the communidy”

    ra-ra “the futcha”

    ra-ra “the nayshun”

    🙄

    http://www.news.com.au/national/voter-support-for-labor-drops-below-30pc/story-fncynjr2-1226433365052

  8. Tom of Melbourne permalink
    July 24, 2012 2:36 pm

    I think you mean – “trust is a the key ingredient in winning an election…”

    Without trust there is not capability to lead. Leaders without trust always resort to bribery, blackmail and intimidation. Though some of those are regarded as attributes in the ALP machine.

  9. TB Queensland permalink
    July 24, 2012 2:38 pm

    run tactical interference by reminding us how bad Howard was.

    No tactical interference her … ’twas a FACT!

    Maybe I’d believe your “fallen allegiance” promotion if you used less verbs and more facts too.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Now gimme why Abbott is an alternative, sreb …

    Whack Turnbull in and I might be interested BUT the other clowns are still on the front bench!

  10. TB Queensland permalink
    July 24, 2012 2:40 pm

    Though some of those are regarded as attributes in the ALP machine.

    By fkn whom? Another “I used to be an ALP voter” blurbing … LibNat propoganda … fk me dead!

  11. Tom of Melbourne permalink
    July 24, 2012 3:37 pm

    Like it or not TB, once someone experiences the grubby and underhand structure of the ALP they’re on their way to being a critic (if they have a reasonable personal value system)

  12. July 24, 2012 4:47 pm

    I think Rudd could put the government within striking distance of a win. A change in September and an election in December, just as the bounce is at its peak…

    I think Rudd’s got too much baggage now, he’s not seen in the same light as he was before. I guess his best value would be the fact that he is at war with the unions, maybe he could be seen as a reformer?

    What Labor needs is to get rid of the NSW right and let the party progress. The sussex st machine who were held most responsible for Labor’s woes are back like the big banks post GFC – business as usual. Nothing has changed and that is the problem.

    BTW, who leaked the temby report, who would have had the most to gain?

    …run tactical interference by reminding us how bad Howard was.

    You are wrong there. It is Abbott who keeps reminding us about Howard, Abbott keeps harping on about how howard’ s policies were so great and how much he admires and models himself upon howard. Abbott tells us he wants to take us back to howard, we don’t want to go there, once was bad enough. The bleak and nasty dark days of howard are nothing compared to what his head kicking protegee will deliver. It is Abbott who keeps Howard’s politics front and centre.

    Like it or not TB, once someone experiences the grubby and underhand structure of the ALP they’re on their way to being a critic (if they have a reasonable personal value system)

    Why then does the almost illegal dealings, machinations and maneuverings of the Lib/Nats offend my personal value system so?

  13. JAWS permalink
    July 24, 2012 4:57 pm

    “The bleak and nasty dark days of howard are nothing compared to what his head kicking protegee will deliver.”

    I don’t think he’s (Abbott) all that some make out to be.

    If anything he’ll be more of a pragmatic leader than an ideologue.

    In fact he never dreamt 5 years ago that he’d be within a whisker of being PM. At that stage he had Costello and Turnbull ahead of him.

    I just don’t think he has got his head around what it means just yet. He does not strike me as the type that has gone throiugh life with an ambition to be PM just to make wholesale changes.

    He’ll roll back stuff (like the Carbon Tax) and tinker at the edges of IR. But to me he lacks an ideological bent.

  14. July 24, 2012 5:09 pm

    But to me he lacks an ideological bent.

    You think so jaws? What about religion, I think that is why he is in politics to ensure his religious views are reflected in law and society.

    Why does he see himself as such a cultural warrior as well? It’s his philosophy, his religious views, the [belated judeo] christian worldview? The reason he has condoned and practised such sexism toward Gillard [and I know the difference between criticism of performance & outright sexism].

  15. Splatterbottom permalink
    July 24, 2012 5:16 pm

    “You are wrong there.”

    Nah, I’m right. The only reason people counter every criticism of Gillard with a rejoinder about Howard or Abbott is to run interference. It is not relevant.

    Just for the record, i voted Labor or (Greens with preference to Labor) from 1983 to 2007. I celebrated the sweetest victory of all in 1993 like you wouldn’t believe. The Top Five things I hate most about Howard are:

    1. His evident racism including his racist statements in the late 80s when he wanted to impose a race test for immigration.
    2. Going to war with Iraq without UN approval.
    3. The fact that he turned the immigration service into a nasty and racist organisation leading to the deportation of Cornelia Rau. Fish rot from the head first.
    4. His bailing out of his brother’s company (which appears to have been done in a way that meant ASIC was not required investigate the conduct of the directors).
    5. The fact that he loosened disclosure standards after losing a number of ministers who couldn’t manage to comply with them.

    And as a special bonus because I hate politicians who break their promises – promising an independent speaker and then ditching Halverson for Sinkers because Halverson was too fair.

    But none of that is relevant to the utterly disgusting corruption and rottenness of Gillard and her government.

  16. Splatterbottom permalink
    July 24, 2012 5:21 pm

    “I don’t think he’s (Abbott) all that some make out to be.

    I didn’t think Rudd would be as bad as he was either. Abbott’s main problem is that he seems as addicted to policy-on-the-run as Rudd or Gillard. He has no coherent policy framework and he seems just as seduced by the attractions of high office as Gillard. I’ll cut him some slack for a while, but it won’t take long for him to fuck up. Especially with the muddle of mediocrities who will help him run the country.

  17. JAWS permalink
    July 24, 2012 5:22 pm

    OK……….. So he’s staunch old fashioned 1960’s Catholic. Well Rudd was pretty religious as well (maybe a pretence). So was Howard.

    I just think Abbott never ever thought he’d get a chance at the top job and in a way that’s good as he’s never had a “prepared ideology” for it. Hence the lack of detail on IR. Howard had a real warlike trait that he carried all thru his career.

    I think you might find Abbott to be much more moderate than you might think. He knows that the electorate need a breather from so called “reform”.In fact I think you might find after about 18 months in the PMs job the loony Right of the LNP will be really pissed off at him.

    Don’t forget he thought Howard wanted to go too far on IR and told Howard that. And that’s been confirmed by others.

  18. JAWS permalink
    July 24, 2012 5:25 pm

    “Abbott’s main problem is that he seems as addicted to policy-on-the-run as Rudd or Gillard. He has no coherent policy framework and he seems just as seduced by the attractions of high office as Gillard.”

    Basically the same as me SB

    There appears to be a lack of predictability/ideology about him

  19. TB Queensland permalink
    July 24, 2012 5:32 pm

    The only reason people counter every criticism of Gillard with a rejoinder about Howard or Abbott is to run interference.

    Maybe you should read (ALL) of this then … dated TODAY …

    Prime Minister John Howard understood that you could make a new friend without losing an old one.

    The Howard government’s approach to foreign policy, including relations with China, was to avoid giving other countries gratuitous public advice in favour of trying to work together on matters of mutual interest.

    As health minister in the Howard government, I visited Beijing (twice), Shanghai, Hong Kong and Chengduin 2006 and 2007.

    Different systems didn’t prevent the Howard government from negotiating a $25 billion deal to deliver gas from the North-West Shelf to China, by far our biggest ever commercial deal to that time.

    Of course, it was also the Howard government that began negotiations on a free trade agreement with China.

    So who’s “running interference” for whom?

  20. Splatterbottom permalink
    July 24, 2012 5:42 pm

    TB, what on earth has that got to do with this discussion. Who gives a shit what Abbott said? The question is why simple criticisms of what has to be one of the worst Australian governments of all time need a rejoinder form the fan club each and every time claiming Howard was worse.

    In my view Howard and Gillard are neck and neck in those stakes, but that is not the point. The real problem we have now is this stinking shambles of a government which needs to be booted ASAP.

  21. July 24, 2012 5:53 pm

    There appears to be a lack of predictability/ideology about him..

    I don’t think so, I think he is deliberately hiding his ideology from scrutiny. Battlelines didn’t get written because he had nothing to say.

    He is trying to hoodwink the voters, laying low, small target strategy, when he gets to be PM he’ll be a whirling dervish of consevative nutjob political ideology!

  22. TB Queensland permalink
    July 24, 2012 6:02 pm

    The real problem we have now is this stinking shambles of a government which needs to be booted ASAP.

    And from my perspective we’ll get a Howard government revisited … with, The Fucking Moron, at the helm … HOWARD x 100!

    TB, what on earth has that got to do with this discussion. Who gives a shit what Abbott said?

    My point was … that, The Fucking Moron, mentioned above, talks about the Howard Years as some sort of Epiphany!

    That’s why …

  23. JAWS permalink
    July 24, 2012 6:06 pm

    Well I just don’t think he’s up there in the ideologue stakes Kitty. He’s more politician than you might think. Having never dreamt of getting the top job I don’t think he’ll squander it like Howard did in over-reaching with Workchoices.

    Sure he’ll tinker around the edges but he would have also learnt from what is likely to happen to the ALP due to the Carbon Tax promise.

    That’s one thing Abbott would have learnt. He might not be the sharpest tool in the shed but he ain’t totally blunt either.

  24. July 24, 2012 6:07 pm

    “The Fucking Moron, mentioned above, talks about the Howard Years as some sort of Epiphany!”

    Yes, it’s a pretty sad state of affairs… They look back to the “Howard years” with misty eyes…

    Remember when even blubbering Joe Hockey thought he was on to a sure thing when the leadership challenge was on, but obediently tottered along to seek counsel from the “wise one” before throwing his hat into the ring.

    He’s like a “Coalition Yoda.”

  25. July 24, 2012 6:12 pm

    “That’s one thing Abbott would have learnt. He might not be the sharpest tool in the shed but he ain’t totally blunt either.”

    Give me a break. Abbott is a mindless twat…. Has he actually come up with an original thought since the last election?

    Everything he utters is practically prefaced with “well it worked in the Howard years.”

    To his credit, he’s an effective opposition leader. But as Prime Minister, he’ll be a complete embarrassment.

  26. TB Queensland permalink
    July 24, 2012 6:14 pm

    He’s like a “Coalition Yoda.”

    LOL! I assume you are referring to …

    ” who comes to this country decide we will and the circumstances they come in which”, Yoda?

  27. July 24, 2012 6:17 pm

    Yes, the Yoda that wasn’t into making commitments.

  28. TB Queensland permalink
    July 24, 2012 6:17 pm

    But as Prime Minister, he’ll be a complete embarrassment.

    Apologies, BlogMasta, but with you indulgence … a slight editorial …

    But as Prime Minister, he’ll be a complete Fuckwit™!.

    Ta … 🙂

  29. el gordo permalink
    July 25, 2012 9:08 pm

    Miglo thinks Tabit will be replaced before the election…that appears doubtful if he’s leading a winning team. He may have a few screws loose, but he’s no worse than princess Julia who leaves a lot to be desired.

  30. Pamela permalink
    July 30, 2012 1:36 pm

    Julia Gillard does a good job with a difficult parliament and opposition. she doesnt lose her temper and shme takmes all the insults and oppoaition without being angry.

    Abbott has to have rehearsed set pieces and he gets angry and frustfrated. this isn’t waht we want in a Prime Minister. He looka foolish and wnats to take us back in time. He would not be upporting a progressive Australia. Julia Gillrd isn’t perfect but shis is a good PM wo works hard in th enational interest. She soens’t deserve so much criticism from some people.

  31. el gordo permalink
    July 30, 2012 2:04 pm

    ‘works hard in the national interest.’

    Doubtful.

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