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PM’s comeback now consigned to history

April 15, 2013

291761-120410-julia-gillard

 

From Fairfax…

Julia Gillard’s government is now trapped in a vortex of miserable morale, low expectations and sullied credibility – almost all of its own making and all neatly reflected in another shocker Age/Nielsen poll.

After the coup that collapsed, Labor’s 29 per cent primary vote has a two in front of it for the first time since June last year, and Julia Gillard’s dismal approval ratings are back where they were before last year’s grinding comeback.

The numbers are so bad that they undermine any confidence that Labor will be around to implement the big picture policies it hopes will restore voter confidence and leave a lasting legacy – school funding reform and a National Disability Insurance Scheme.

The promise of an extra $14.5 billion in public investment in schools over the next six years would resonate much more if there seemed a reasonable prospect of Labor still being in power in six months. As things stand, there isn’t.

The plan unveiled on Sunday is bold and visionary, but invites its own tough set of questions: whether conservative states will come on board; whether it will be undermined by funding cuts to universities and the removal of the incentive for university students and parents to pay their fees up front; whether Gillard, Treasurer Wayne Swan and School Education Minister Peter Garrett can sell it.

The biggest question, however, is whether the voters have already written off this government and stopped listening – especially when it comes to plans that will be implemented years after the September 14 poll.

Having executed one successful comeback in which Labor’s and Gillard’s ratings returned to competitive levels in the months after the carbon price was introduced, there seems little prospect of this happening twice – not least because of the internal doubts and divisions that propelled last month’s fiasco of a leadership challenge without a challenger.

This is the third consecutive month when the Prime Minister’s net approval rating – approval minus disapproval – is worse than minus-20. In the first half of last year, there were six such months before Gillard squared the ledger and pulled well clear of Tony Abbott.

Abbott leads an utterly ascendant opposition and enjoys an 8-percentage-point edge as preferred prime minister, but his own ratings provide a faint ray of light for Labor, perhaps its only ray of light.

While the Coalition leads Labor, 49 to 29, on the primary vote, Abbott leads Gillard by just 43 to 37 when it comes to the percentage of voters who approve of his performance.

Will the race tighten as more scrutiny is applied to the man who now looks a shoo-in to be our next PM?

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31 Comments leave one →
  1. Splatterbottom permalink
    April 15, 2013 12:46 pm

    “While the Coalition leads Labor, 49 to 29, on the primary vote, Abbott leads Gillard by just 43 to 37 when it comes to the percentage of voters who approve of his performance.”

    This shows that voters are determined to change the government, but do not have great expectations that Abbott will be much better than Gillard. Sad really.

    It seems that the mechanics of getting to the top in both parties does not produce the best leader. You could argue that by replacing Mad Mark with Rudd the ALP was forced to put up a decent leader after years in the wilderness. But the union proprietors of the ALP soon enough flexed their muscles. The first big lie to justify the long knives was that Labor would not win the 2010 election with Rudd at the helm. It was all down hill from there.

    Abbott seems to have fallen across the line to take the Liberal leadership because neither Hockey nor Turnbull would backtrack on Global Warming. It is a shame that Turnbull was so stubborn on that issue because it is out of step with the majority view and becoming more discredited by the day. Abbott would do well to make Turnbull treasurer, but I suppose that is too much to hope for.

  2. Neil of Sydney permalink
    April 15, 2013 2:52 pm

    John Howard must be back in power

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/policies-unaffected-by-hunger-strikes-pm/story-fn3dxiwe-1226620849034

    PRIME Minister Julia Gillard says asylum seekers going on hunger strike won’t succeed in pressuring the government to change its policies.

    Ms Gillard was commenting on a group of 27 asylum seekers on hunger strike at a Melbourne detention centre.

    Last week, the government confirmed one of the asylum seekers had received treatment for dehydration.”

  3. el gordo permalink
    April 15, 2013 3:37 pm

    ‘Abbott would do well to make Turnbull treasurer, but I suppose that is too much to hope for.’

    All in good time.

    Meanwhile over at TPS there is a suggestion that Abbott sees the future in a rear view mirror.

    Pathetic.

  4. TB Queensland permalink
    April 15, 2013 4:28 pm

    I see someone is trying to throw you some faery dust at the top of the comments … sreb 🙄

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    It is a shame that Turnbull was so stubborn on that issue because it is out of step with the majority view …

    I agree with your post, sb, just a point you missed with regard to the above … Utegate … the Libs got off lightly with the fit up … as they seem to have done with Ashbygate …

    The ALP just can’t land a blow … as the Libs just dance around the ring …

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Meanwhile over at TPS there is a suggestion that Abbott sees the future in a rear view mirror.

    Not an original comment but he does have a tendency to “live” in the fifties …

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    As for Abbott’s showing in the poll … that’s probably because he has pulled his head in again … very quiet just lately … and these numbers come from a Galaxy Poll notorious for loaded questions …

    Not that the numbers would change much anyway, methinks …

    Just a choice of Dumb or Dumber (take your pick which is which) …

  5. Neil of Sydney permalink
    April 15, 2013 4:36 pm

  6. Splatterbottom permalink
    April 15, 2013 4:49 pm

    “Will the race tighten as more scrutiny is applied to the man who now looks a shoo-in to be our next PM?”

    It should tighten a little, but then everything old Tin Ear touches turns to shit, and it will only get worse as she gets more desperate.

  7. Tom of Melbourne permalink
    April 15, 2013 5:14 pm

    What are all those miserable MPs going to do? They can’t turn to Rudd for a bounce, nor Crean. Shorten & Combet wouldn’t touch the poisoned chalice. Gillard remains leader by default. The lemmings will follow her over the cliff.

  8. Neil of Sydney permalink
    April 15, 2013 5:43 pm

    You know it is really strange that a political party slashes University funding just before an election.

    Why not wait until just after the election like most political parties would do??

  9. el gordo permalink
    April 15, 2013 5:45 pm

    Gonski had to be funded and they had no idea where the money was coming from. so they robbed peter to save paul.

    Another policy blunder.

  10. Splatterbottom permalink
    April 15, 2013 5:52 pm

    “The lemmings will follow her over the cliff.”

    The lemmings will do what their Unionland bosses tell them to do. As Sleazy Albanese said to Doogie Cameron when agreeing that McDonald could retain his pre-selection: “the law of realpolitik rules”. There is no future for the ALP at least until the law of decency replaces the law of realpolitik. Given that Unions have voting control of the ALP, this isn’t going to happen anytime soon

  11. Splatterbottom permalink
    April 15, 2013 5:58 pm

    “Gonski had to be funded and they had no idea where the money was coming from.”

    Not only do they have no idea where the money is coming from, they have no idea where it is going. Gonski is all about funding. It is silent on how and on what the money is going to be spent. But here is a clue – the teacher unions love Gonski and also think teacher salaries should double.

    There are of course other things that could be done to improve educational outcomes and bring them into line with neighbouring countries who pay less per student for better outcomes. But the teacher unions will fight tooth and nail for that to happen. Gonski is all about throwing money at teacher unions. Any educational benefit to students will be entirely accidental.

  12. April 15, 2013 6:23 pm

    No to a humane approach to asylum seekers
    No to marriage equality
    No to university funding for books and the like

    Julia Gillard: Delivering Tony Abbott’s policies of tomorrow today.

    Thanks Julia!

  13. TB Queensland permalink
    April 15, 2013 6:37 pm

    Yeah … Thanks Julia and Tony!! 🙂

  14. el gordo permalink
    April 15, 2013 7:13 pm

    They are a great double act.

  15. April 15, 2013 8:05 pm

    Thanks Joolya
    No to voluntary euthanasia.
    Yes to corporate welfare.
    Yes to womens pension cuts.

  16. April 15, 2013 8:09 pm

    I heard Juliar on the wireless today..

    “Let me re-engineer that question” ~ Julia Gillard

    In other words, “let me tell you what the question is that you should’ve asked me rather than the one that you did…”

  17. TB Queensland permalink
    April 15, 2013 8:20 pm

    Isn’t that a “Rudd”? Make up questions and answer ’em yersel’?

  18. el gordo permalink
    April 15, 2013 8:44 pm

    “I have a tin ear..let me re-engineer that question”

  19. Neil of Sydney permalink
    April 15, 2013 8:55 pm

    Gonski had to be funded and they had no idea where the money was coming from. so they robbed peter to save paul.”

    Still does not answer the question. What is the difference between a $10B deficit and a $12B deficit??Labor supporters traditionally do not worry about debt. Just whack it on the credit card. University people will not be happy. Apparently Gonski is horrified. He never thought his secondary school funding would be subsidised by cutting tertiary education.

    I can only assume the budget is in much worse shape than we realise.

  20. Ol' Sancty permalink
    April 15, 2013 9:02 pm

    Word has it not even Swanny’s talking to her now.

  21. armchair opinionator permalink
    April 15, 2013 9:05 pm

    On sunday morning on the ‘insiders’ the panel were discussing the Gonski reforms. The lib stooge nikki savva tried to paint higher nsw spending as labor buying votes in marginal areas like western sydney [talk about a tin ear on the public being sick to death of fkn oz journo political campaigning]. The other commentator [don’t know his name] explained how that assertion was patently wrong because gonski was all about funding on the basis of need and equality, which is why the other states got less.

    JG was asked the same question the next morning on ABC TV, I waited with interest for her to explain it to us. She answered by defending everything but that precise explanation – I shook my head at her inability to explain something so simple to people, the opportunity went begging.

    hmmm:

    https://twitter.com/JoeHockey_MP/status/323358474782265344

  22. April 15, 2013 9:40 pm

    l regularly notice that with politicians armchair, they put soooo much effort into dodging or sexing-up the answer, they end up missing or messing up the answer and creating gibberish _ often the simple, straight answer would make gains for them

  23. April 15, 2013 9:53 pm

    David Marr was very interesting talking about Mr-Rabbit on qandaland _ Marr seems to believe Mr-Rabbit will win _ major Lefty collapse

  24. TB Queensland permalink
    April 15, 2013 10:09 pm

    Noice ta see ya back, KL!

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Word has it not even Swanny’s talking to her now.

    But isn’t he pregnant?

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Voters of New England know the boat people will steal their jobs & women

    This is a senior Australian politician for the world to see? … Have they really sunk this low? (or always been down there)

    They’re supposed to be “role models” they are supposed to represent Australia and Australians … this comment is high school graffiti stuff!

    How much do we pay them? Forever …!

  25. Tom of Melbourne permalink
    April 15, 2013 10:49 pm

    There’s a fair number of rednecks around Armidale and Tamworth.

  26. Evil Walrus of Palm Beach permalink
    April 15, 2013 10:52 pm

    I think a helluva lot of marginal seat MPs must have been promised jobs in union land if they stuck with Gillard when Rudd was circling a few weeks ago.

    There really is no other explanation for her caucus support back then.

  27. Neil of Sydney permalink
    April 15, 2013 11:07 pm

    You should also condemn a senior politician who holds the balance of power for saying this

    http://www.news.com.au/national-news/nsw-act/tony-windsor-says-barnaby-joyces-supporters-are-rednecks/story-fndo4bst-1226620023241

    TONY Windsor has launched a savage attack on his political opponent Barnaby Joyce’s “redneck” demographic…………………..”The Right wing conservatives, people who receive fear messages easily, that’s been his demographic,’’ Mr Windsor told the Sunday Telegraph.

    “Partly rednecks in Queensland. Well, don’t call them rednecks if it offends people. People who frighten easily

    It is typical ALP behaviour to demonise your opponents. Either by ALP supporters or ALP politicians, they never change. First instinct is to make a derogatory comment about people who vote for the Conservative side of politics.

    By the way what is a redneck??

  28. el gordo permalink
    April 16, 2013 7:34 am

    ‘By the way what is a redneck?’

    Uneducated reactionary white trash who live in the bush.

  29. Splatterbottom permalink
    April 16, 2013 9:09 am

    Windsor speaks like a man who has betrayed his constituency and expects to be punished at the ballot box. Now his tactic appears to be doubling down and trying to earn the respect of the Greeen/ALP crowd. No doubt the rest of the electorate would like to see him tarred, feathered and run out of town on a rail.

  30. April 16, 2013 9:12 am

    “Uneducated reactionary white trash who live in the bush”

    That’s grossly unfair!!

    Some of them live in the suburbs too.

  31. TB Queensland permalink
    April 16, 2013 9:17 am

    Some of them live in the suburbs too.

    Yep we call ’em Mexicans in Queensland … most are in Melbourne I believe …

    I like the way Kneel gets all uppity about what people say and then asks what it means …

    Would you like a chocolate?

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